GTM Engineering

Pipeline & forecasting

Build a pipeline you can trust and a forecast leadership believes: stage definitions, coverage, conversion math, and commit discipline.

A forecast is a claim: we will close this much by this date. A claim you can defend rests on three things: clean stage definitions, honest conversion math, and a cadence that catches drift early.

Stage definitions with exit criteria

Each stage needs an observable, binary exit criterion. “Had a good call” is not one. “Economic buyer confirmed the problem is worth solving” is. If you cannot answer yes or no, the stage is underspecified and your pipeline is fiction.

Coverage and conversion

Coverage ratio (open pipeline over the gap to target) tells you if the number is reachable; three to four times is a healthy quarter. Then apply historical conversion by stage. This usually shrinks the number, and that discomfort is the point.

Categories

Keep commit, best case, and pipeline distinct. Blending them is how a forecast loses credibility the first time a “commit” deal slips.

The weekly diff

The forecast is a rhythm, not a monthly event. Compare this week to last, and interrogate what moved. You want to know the number dropped on Tuesday, not at quarter end.